Tennis · ATP Bastad · 12/07, 10:30
Prediction: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Marcondes
Prediction summary
Winner
Gonzalo Bueno
Igor Marcondes
Estimated games
23.7Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Gonzalo Bueno
5-5 (W-L)
Igor Marcondes
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gonzalo Bueno 1461 · Igor Marcondes 1507
| Gonzalo Bueno | Igor Marcondes | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 58% | 42% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Igor Marcondes (rating 1461 vs 1507).
Statistics
| Gonzalo Bueno | Igor Marcondes | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (9) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.4 | 1.4-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.9-12.3 | 14.2-13 |
| Aces | 4.5 | 3.6 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 58% | 72.4% |
| Break % | 45.3% | 34.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2.2
Over 21.5: 65% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 35% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gonzalo Bueno
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Laslo Djere Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Jerome Kym Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 18/06 | Dalibor Svrcina Challenger Poznan · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Frederico Ferreira Silva Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/06 | Tomasz Berkieta Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/06 | Francesco Forti Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 02/06 | Dusan Lajovic Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/05 | Tommaso Compagnucci Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 21/05 | Toby Samuel French Open · Clay |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 20/05 | Vitaliy Sachko French Open · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Igor Marcondes
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Filip Jeff Planinsek Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Lorenzo Giustino Challenger Troyes · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 01/07 | Luca Staeheli Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 29/06 | Thomas Faurel Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 25/03 | Alex Barrena Challenger Sao Paulo · Clay |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 11/03 | Nicolas Moreno De Alboran Challenger Santiago · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 10/03 | Jaime Faria Challenger Santiago · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 09/03 | Daniel Antonio Nunez Challenger Santiago · Clay |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 08/03 | Milledge Cossu Challenger Santiago · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/03 | Gustavo Heide Challenger Brasilia · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Marcondes?
Our model gives 51% to Gonzalo Bueno, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.