Tennis · ATP Bastad · 12/07, 10:00
Prediction: Federico Coria vs Taro Daniel
Prediction summary
Winner
Federico Coria
Taro Daniel
Estimated games
22.1Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Federico Coria
5-5 (W-L)
Taro Daniel
9-1 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Federico Coria
0–2
Taro Daniel
(2 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Federico Coria 1469 · Taro Daniel 1621
| Federico Coria | Taro Daniel | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 71% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Taro Daniel (rating 1469 vs 1621).
- Taro Daniel is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Federico Coria 0–2 Taro Daniel (2).
Statistics
| Federico Coria | Taro Daniel | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 90% |
| Win % · Clay | 38% (8) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.4 | 1.9-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-12.4 | 12.4-8.5 |
| Aces | 4.6 | 2.6 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| 1st serve % | 61.4% | 68.3% |
| Break % | 40.7% | 55.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +0.6
Over 21.5: 54% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 46% · 1.83
H2H · Federico Coria 0 – 2 Taro Daniel (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Federico Coria 0–2 Taro Daniel
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/19 Challenger Genova | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 07/03/17 Challenger Santiago | 1-2 | 11-15 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Federico Coria
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Guy Den Ouden Challenger Liege · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 24/06 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Oliver Bonding Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 16/06 | Nicolas Kicker Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 11/06 | Andrea Collarini Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 10/06 | Segundo Goity Zapico Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 18/05 | Vilius Gaubas French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/04 | Gonzalo Bueno Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/04 | Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 10/02 | Matteo Berrettini ATP Buenos Aires · Clay |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
Taro Daniel
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Valentin Royer Challenger Iasi · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 09/07 | Zdenek Kolar Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 06/07 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/06 | Alexander Shevchenko Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 13/06 | Federico Cina Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 12/06 | Zsombor Piros Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/06 | Emilio Nava Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/06 | Timofey Skatov Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/06 | Lukas Neumayer Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/06 | Tomas Lanik Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Federico Coria vs Taro Daniel?
Our model gives 72% to Taro Daniel, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.