Tennis · ATP Bastad · 14/07, 11:00
Prediction: Daniel Altmaier vs Hugo Gaston
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniel Altmaier
Hugo Gaston
Estimated games
26.6Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Daniel Altmaier
4-6 (W-L)
Hugo Gaston
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Daniel Altmaier
0–1
Hugo Gaston
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniel Altmaier 1500 · Hugo Gaston 1549
| Daniel Altmaier | Hugo Gaston | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 57% | 43% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hugo Gaston (rating 1500 vs 1549).
- Head-to-head: Daniel Altmaier 0–1 Hugo Gaston (1).
- Note: Daniel Altmaier makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Daniel Altmaier | Hugo Gaston | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (3) | 80% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.5 | 1.7-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.4-15.5 | 14.8-13.4 |
| Aces | 9.5 | 3.5 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 72.2% | 72.4% |
| Break % | 27.1% | 39.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.6 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +4.1
Over 22.5: 77% · 2.00
Under 22.5: 23% · 1.72
H2H · Daniel Altmaier 0 – 1 Hugo Gaston (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daniel Altmaier 0–1 Hugo Gaston
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/24 ATP Kitzbuhel | 1-2 | 15-18 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniel Altmaier
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Alex Molcan Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 17-22 | L |
| 23/06 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 20/06 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 19/06 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 17/06 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 15/06 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/06 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 26/05 | Felix Auger Aliassime French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 23-27 | L |
| 21/05 | Tommy Paul ATP Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 19/05 | Ben Shelton ATP Hamburg · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
Hugo Gaston
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 10/07 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/07 | Mika Petkovic Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 07/07 | Andrey Chepelev Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Stefanos Tsitsipas Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 25/06 | Moez Echargui Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-14 | W |
| 24/06 | Federico Cina Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/06 | Lautaro Midon Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 16/06 | Felix Gill Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 28/05 | Francisco Cerundolo French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 13-20 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniel Altmaier vs Hugo Gaston?
Our model gives 51% to Daniel Altmaier, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.