Tennis · ATP Bastad · 14/07, 11:00
Prediction: Dalibor Svrcina vs Grigor Dimitrov
Prediction summary
Winner
Dalibor Svrcina
Grigor Dimitrov
Estimated games
25.2Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Dalibor Svrcina
6-4 (W-L)
Grigor Dimitrov
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dalibor Svrcina 1492 · Grigor Dimitrov 1556
| Dalibor Svrcina | Grigor Dimitrov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Grigor Dimitrov (rating 1492 vs 1556).
- Grigor Dimitrov is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Dalibor Svrcina makes many double faults (5.1/match).
- Note: Grigor Dimitrov makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Dalibor Svrcina | Grigor Dimitrov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 44% (9) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 1.9-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-12 | 16.1-13.4 |
| Aces | 2.1 | 9.9 |
| Double faults | 5.1 | 4.6 |
| 1st serve % | 64.2% | 79.2% |
| Break % | 53.8% | 39.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.2 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2.7
Over 22.5: 68% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 32% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dalibor Svrcina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Learner Tien Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 15-24 | L |
| 19/06 | Gustavo Heide Challenger Poznan · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 18/06 | Gonzalo Bueno Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/06 | Norbert Gombos Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/06 | Duje Ajdukovic Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/06 | Andrea Guerrieri Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 02/06 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 21/05 | Thomas Faurel French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Grigor Dimitrov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Arthur Fery Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 27-27 | L |
| 04/07 | Matteo Berrettini Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 26-23 | W |
| 02/07 | Jakub Mensik Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 24-20 | W |
| 30/06 | Dane Sweeny Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
| 25/06 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Abedallah Shelbayh ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Marc Polmans ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 18/06 | Kyrian Jacquet Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Conor Gannon Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/06 | Chris Rodesch Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dalibor Svrcina vs Grigor Dimitrov?
Our model gives 63% to Grigor Dimitrov, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.