Tennis · ATP Bastad · 14/07, 11:00
Prediction: Sebastian Ofner vs Thiago Agustin Tirante
Prediction summary
Winner
Sebastian Ofner
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Estimated games
25.5Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Sebastian Ofner
6-4 (W-L)
Thiago Agustin Tirante
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sebastian Ofner 1536 · Thiago Agustin Tirante 1505
| Sebastian Ofner | Thiago Agustin Tirante | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 43% | 57% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Sebastian Ofner dominates on serve: 9.6 aces and 41.3% break avg.
- Thiago Agustin Tirante dominates on serve: 7.9 aces and 42.1% break avg.
Statistics
| Sebastian Ofner | Thiago Agustin Tirante | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 63% (8) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.4 | 1.3-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.5-13.7 | 13.6-13.3 |
| Aces | 9.6 | 7.9 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 74.7% | 74.3% |
| Break % | 41.3% | 42.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.5 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3
Over 22.5: 70% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 30% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sebastian Ofner
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Daniel Rincon Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 07/07 | Norbert Gombos Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/07 | Hubert Hurkacz Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-19 | L |
| 29/06 | Hamad Medjedovic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 23-21 | W |
| 20/06 | Luca Van Assche Challenger Parma · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 19/06 | Laslo Djere Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 18/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 17/06 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 15/06 | Raul Brancaccio Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/05 | Luciano Darderi French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 11-19 | L |
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Fabian Marozsan Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-19 | L |
| 24/06 | Toby Samuel ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Hamish Stewart ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/05 | Pablo Carreno Busta French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 21-23 | L |
| 27/05 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 23-16 | W |
| 24/05 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 25-16 | W |
| 18/05 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/05 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 11/05 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 09/05 | Cameron Norrie ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sebastian Ofner vs Thiago Agustin Tirante?
Our model gives 52% to Thiago Agustin Tirante, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.