Tennis · ATP Bastad · 14/07, 11:00
Prediction: Jan Choinski vs Nikoloz Basilashvili
Prediction summary
Winner
Jan Choinski
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Estimated games
24.8Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jan Choinski
7-3 (W-L)
Nikoloz Basilashvili
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jan Choinski 1588 · Nikoloz Basilashvili 1481
| Jan Choinski | Nikoloz Basilashvili | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 60% | 40% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jan Choinski (rating 1588 vs 1481).
- Jan Choinski dominates on serve: 8.9 aces and 42.6% break avg.
- Jan Choinski is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Nikoloz Basilashvili makes many double faults (5.1/match).
Statistics
| Jan Choinski | Nikoloz Basilashvili | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 100% (4) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.9 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.3-12.1 | 12.2-12.9 |
| Aces | 8.9 | 9.2 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 5.1 |
| 1st serve % | 74.3% | 76.5% |
| Break % | 42.6% | 32.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.8 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2.3
Over 22.5: 65% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 35% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jan Choinski
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Daniel Rincon Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 10/07 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/07 | Max Hans Rehberg Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 07/07 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/07 | Frances Tiafoe Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 15-23 | L |
| 30/06 | Vit Kopriva Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 25/06 | Zizou Bergs ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Felix Gill ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 22/06 | Alexei Popyrin ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 21/06 | Marcos Giron ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Vilius Gaubas Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 22/06 | Elias Ymer Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 15/06 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/06 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 13/06 | Diego Dedura-Palomero ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/06 | Marc-Andrea Huesler ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 18/05 | Pedro Boscardin Dias French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 12/05 | Andrey Rublev ATP Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 11/05 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 09/05 | Ben Shelton ATP Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jan Choinski vs Nikoloz Basilashvili?
Our model gives 62% to Jan Choinski, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.