Tennis · ATP Bastad · 14/07, 11:00
Prediction: Jesper De Jong vs Vilius Gaubas
Prediction summary
Winner
Jesper De Jong
Vilius Gaubas
Estimated games
26.2Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jesper De Jong
6-4 (W-L)
Vilius Gaubas
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jesper De Jong
1–0
Vilius Gaubas
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jesper De Jong 1569 · Vilius Gaubas 1481
| Jesper De Jong | Vilius Gaubas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jesper De Jong (rating 1569 vs 1481).
- Jesper De Jong dominates on serve: 8.7 aces and 43.8% break avg.
- Jesper De Jong is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Jesper De Jong 1–0 Vilius Gaubas (1).
- Note: Jesper De Jong makes many double faults (5.4/match).
Statistics
| Jesper De Jong | Vilius Gaubas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 75% (8) | 17% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1.5 | 1.1-1.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.8-14.8 | 12.8-15 |
| Aces | 8.7 | 4.3 |
| Double faults | 5.4 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 74.4% | 65.8% |
| Break % | 43.8% | 24.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.2 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +4.7
Over 21.5: 79% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 21% · 1.90
H2H · Jesper De Jong 1 – 0 Vilius Gaubas (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jesper De Jong 1–0 Vilius Gaubas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08/25 US Open | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jesper De Jong
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Joao Fonseca Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 30/06 | Rinky Hijikata Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 27-26 | W |
| 16/06 | Laslo Djere Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 14/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/06 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 12/06 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 11/06 | Federico Bondioli Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 09/06 | Ognjen Milic Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 31/05 | Alexander Zverev French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 11-19 | L |
| 29/05 | Karen Khachanov French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 30-23 | W |
Vilius Gaubas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Nikoloz Basilashvili Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 30/06 | Kyrian Jacquet Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 13-19 | L |
| 25/06 | Dusan Lajovic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 24-23 | W |
| 24/06 | Henry Searle Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 22/06 | Michael Mmoh Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 09/06 | Miguel Damas Challenger Lyon · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Timofey Skatov Challenger Perugia · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 25/05 | Luca Van Assche French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 17-21 | L |
| 22/05 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jesper De Jong vs Vilius Gaubas?
Our model gives 64% to Jesper De Jong, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.