Tennis · ATP Bastad · 14/07, 11:00
Prediction: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Andrea Pellegrino
Prediction summary
Winner
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Andrea Pellegrino
Estimated games
24.5Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
4-6 (W-L)
Andrea Pellegrino
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 1480 · Andrea Pellegrino 1518
| Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | Andrea Pellegrino | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 55% |
| Market | 47% | 53% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | Andrea Pellegrino | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (4) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.6 | 1.4-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.4-13.3 | 12.8-12.6 |
| Aces | 10.7 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 67.9% | 64.8% |
| Break % | 36.9% | 51.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.5 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +1
Over 23.5: 57% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 43% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Otto Virtanen Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-23 | L |
| 24/06 | Matej Dodig Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 14/06 | Mackenzie McDonald Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 08/06 | August Holmgren Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 02/06 | Mackenzie McDonald Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 20/05 | Tom Gentzsch French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 19/05 | Gilles Arnaud Bailly French Open · Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 13/05 | Miomir Kecmanovic Challenger Valencia · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 12/05 | Jakub Paul Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
Andrea Pellegrino
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Raul Brancaccio Challenger Trieste · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 07/07 | Max Alcala Gurri Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/06 | Tristan Boyer Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Jay Clarke Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 06/06 | Daniel Merida Aguilar Challenger Perugia · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 05/06 | Pierluigi Basile Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 02/06 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 25/05 | Flavio Cobolli French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 13-19 | L |
| 21/05 | Marco Cecchinato French Open · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Andrea Pellegrino?
Our model gives 54% to Andrea Pellegrino, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.