Tennis · ATP Gstaad · 14/07, 10:00
Prediction: Jaime Faria vs Stan Wawrinka
Prediction summary
Winner
Jaime Faria
Stan Wawrinka
Estimated games
28.6Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jaime Faria
8-2 (W-L)
Stan Wawrinka
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jaime Faria 1552 · Stan Wawrinka 1411
| Jaime Faria | Stan Wawrinka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 31% |
| Market | 60% | 40% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jaime Faria (rating 1552 vs 1411).
- Jaime Faria dominates on serve: 11.2 aces and 42.9% break avg.
- Jaime Faria is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Jaime Faria makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Statistics
| Jaime Faria | Stan Wawrinka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 20% |
| Win % · Grass | 71% (7) | 0% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.1-1 | 0.7-2 |
| Games (G-P) | 17.1-15 | 13.6-15.8 |
| Aces | 11.2 | 8.5 |
| Double faults | 5.2 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 78.1% | 74% |
| Break % | 42.9% | 27.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
28.6 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +5.1
Over 23.5: 82% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 18% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jaime Faria
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Zizou Bergs Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 17-23 | L |
| 30/06 | Sho Shimabukuro Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 25-19 | W |
| 25/06 | Rei Sakamoto Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-19 | W |
| 24/06 | Luka Pavlovic Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Hugo Grenier Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/06 | Zhizhen Zhang Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 15/06 | Moez Echargui Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 30/05 | Frances Tiafoe French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 22-29 | L |
| 28/05 | Jan-Lennard Struff French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 20-13 | W |
| 26/05 | Denis Shapovalov French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
Stan Wawrinka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Matteo Berrettini Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 25-27 | L |
| 07/06 | Arthur Rinderknech Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 05/06 | Corentin Moutet Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Jesper De Jong French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 16-21 | L |
| 20/05 | Alex Michelsen ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 18/05 | Raul Brancaccio ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 04/05 | Stefano Travaglia ATP Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 28/04 | Sebastian Ofner Challenger Aix en Provence · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/04 | Cameron Norrie ATP Barcelona · Clay |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 06/04 | Sebastian Baez ATP Monte Carlo · Clay |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jaime Faria vs Stan Wawrinka?
Our model gives 64% to Jaime Faria, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.