Tennis · ATP Gstaad · 14/07, 10:00
Prediction: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Zdenek Kolar
Prediction summary
Winner
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Zdenek Kolar
Estimated games
24.2Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
5-5 (W-L)
Zdenek Kolar
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Juan Manuel Cerundolo 1548 · Zdenek Kolar 1488
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | Zdenek Kolar | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Juan Manuel Cerundolo (rating 1548 vs 1488).
- Juan Manuel Cerundolo dominates on serve: 8.8 aces and 43.2% break avg.
- Juan Manuel Cerundolo is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | Zdenek Kolar | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 83% (6) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-1.4 | 1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 17.2-15.8 | 10.3-10.5 |
| Aces | 8.8 | 5.6 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 74.6% | 61.3% |
| Break % | 43.2% | 53.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.2 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.7
Over 22.5: 62% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 38% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-19 | L |
| 25/06 | Toby Samuel ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Arthur Fery ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Raphael Collignon ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 01/06 | Matteo Berrettini French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 15-20 | L |
| 30/05 | Martin Landaluce French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 32-30 | W |
| 28/05 | Jannik Sinner French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 24-19 | W |
| 26/05 | Jacob Fearnley French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
| 17/05 | Raphael Collignon Challenger Bordeaux · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 16/05 | Quentin Halys Challenger Bordeaux · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Zdenek Kolar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Taro Daniel Challenger Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 06/07 | Stefan Palosi Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 22/06 | Tom Gentzsch Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Federico Cina Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 10/06 | Lukas Pokorny Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 09/06 | Jason Jung Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/06 | Lautaro Midon Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 27/05 | Sumit Nagal Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 26/05 | Ilya Snitari Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/05 | Coleman Wong French Open · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Zdenek Kolar?
Our model gives 66% to Juan Manuel Cerundolo, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.