Tennis · ATP Gstaad · 14/07, 10:00
Prediction: Lorenzo Sonego vs Joel Schwaerzler
Prediction summary
Winner
Lorenzo Sonego
Joel Schwaerzler
Estimated games
27.3Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Lorenzo Sonego
7-3 (W-L)
Joel Schwaerzler
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lorenzo Sonego 1497 · Joel Schwaerzler 1448
| Lorenzo Sonego | Joel Schwaerzler | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lorenzo Sonego (rating 1497 vs 1448).
Statistics
| Lorenzo Sonego | Joel Schwaerzler | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (2) | 33% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.8 | 1-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.8-17.8 | 12.4-12.7 |
| Aces | 9.4 | 11.6 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 3.8 |
| 1st serve % | 73.6% | 67.6% |
| Break % | 37.9% | 29.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27.3 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +3.8
Over 23.5: 75% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 25% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lorenzo Sonego
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Taylor Fritz Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-23 | L |
| 02/07 | Gabriel Diallo Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 30-27 | W |
| 30/06 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 25-21 | W |
| 23/06 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Mallorca · Grass |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 21/06 | Mariano Navone ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 17/06 | Ben Shelton ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 14/06 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Filip Cristian Jianu ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 27/05 | Tommy Paul French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 9-18 | L |
| 24/05 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 25-25 | W |
Joel Schwaerzler
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Federico Bondioli Challenger Trieste · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 22/06 | Christopher O'Connell Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 01/06 | Matej Dodig Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 28/05 | Pol Martin Tiffon Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 26/05 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 20/05 | Roman Safiullin French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Clement Chidekh French Open · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 13/05 | Federico Cina Challenger Tunis · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/05 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Tunis · Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 28/04 | Jan Choinski Challenger Mauthausen · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lorenzo Sonego vs Joel Schwaerzler?
Our model gives 62% to Lorenzo Sonego, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.