Tennis · ATP Gstaad · 14/07, 10:00
Prediction: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse
Prediction summary
Winner
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Ignacio Buse
Estimated games
25.5Bet365 line 24.5
Recent form · 10 last
Stefanos Tsitsipas
5-5 (W-L)
Ignacio Buse
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Stefanos Tsitsipas
0–1
Ignacio Buse
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stefanos Tsitsipas 1472 · Ignacio Buse 1517
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Ignacio Buse | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ignacio Buse (rating 1472 vs 1517).
- Head-to-head: Stefanos Tsitsipas 0–1 Ignacio Buse (1).
Statistics
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Ignacio Buse | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 43% (7) | 75% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 1.4-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.3-13.2 | 13.4-14.4 |
| Aces | 7.6 | 2.9 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 77.9% | 68.4% |
| Break % | 34.4% | 44.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.5 · Bet365 line 24.5 · +1
Over 24.5: 57% · 1.83
Under 24.5: 43% · 1.83
H2H · Stefanos Tsitsipas 0 – 1 Ignacio Buse (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stefanos Tsitsipas 0–1 Ignacio Buse
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06/26 ATP Mallorca | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Novak Djokovic Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 9-18 | L |
| 29/06 | Hugo Gaston Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 23/06 | Ignacio Buse ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/05 | Matteo Arnaldi French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 18-24 | L |
| 20/05 | Learner Tien ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 18/05 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 07/05 | Tomas Machac ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 28/04 | Casper Ruud ATP Madrid · Clay |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 27/04 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Madrid · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/04 | Alexander Bublik ATP Madrid · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Ignacio Buse
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Jenson Brooksby Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 29/06 | Emilio Nava Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-17 | W |
| 24/06 | Vit Kopriva ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 17/06 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Marcos Giron ATP Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 25/05 | Andrey Rublev French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 18-25 | L |
| 23/05 | Tommy Paul ATP Hamburg · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 22/05 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/05 | Ugo Humbert ATP Hamburg · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse?
Our model gives 53% to Ignacio Buse, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.