Tennis · ATP Gstaad · 14/07, 10:00
Prediction: Alexandre Muller vs Alexander Shevchenko
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexandre Muller
Alexander Shevchenko
Estimated games
22.4Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alexandre Muller
2-8 (W-L)
Alexander Shevchenko
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alexandre Muller
2–0
Alexander Shevchenko
(2 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexandre Muller 1411 · Alexander Shevchenko 1508
| Alexandre Muller | Alexander Shevchenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 64% |
| Market | 43% | 57% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alexander Shevchenko (rating 1411 vs 1508).
- Alexander Shevchenko is in better form: 50% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Alexandre Muller 2–0 Alexander Shevchenko (2).
Statistics
| Alexandre Muller | Alexander Shevchenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 22% (9) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.5-1.8 | 1.1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.6-12.3 | 11.6-12.5 |
| Aces | 1.9 | 4.8 |
| Double faults | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 66.8% | 65.8% |
| Break % | 18.9% | 36.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4 · Bet365 line 23.5 · -1.1
Over 23.5: 43% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 57% · 1.80
H2H · Alexandre Muller 2 – 0 Alexander Shevchenko (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alexandre Muller 2–0 Alexander Shevchenko
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/23 Challenger Sanremo | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/03/18 ITF Turkey F9 | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexandre Muller
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Tommy Paul Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 4-18 | L |
| 16/05 | Edas Butvilas ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/05 | Rei Sakamoto Challenger Bordeaux · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 06/05 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 28/04 | Yibing Wu Challenger Aix en Provence · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/04 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 12/04 | Otto Virtanen ATP Barcelona · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 11/04 | Max Alcala Gurri ATP Barcelona · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/04 | Corentin Moutet ATP Monte Carlo · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/04 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Monte Carlo · Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
Alexander Shevchenko
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Felix Auger Aliassime Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 8-18 | L |
| 20/06 | Abedallah Shelbayh ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/06 | Taro Daniel Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 13/06 | Vitaliy Sachko Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 12/06 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 11/06 | Hynek Barton Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 03/06 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/06 | Raul Brancaccio Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 25/05 | Alex Michelsen French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 8-18 | L |
| 12/05 | Hugo Gaston Challenger Bordeaux · Clay |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexandre Muller vs Alexander Shevchenko?
Our model gives 60% to Alexander Shevchenko, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.