Tennis · ATP Gstaad · 11/07, 11:30
Prediction: Thiago Monteiro vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Prediction summary
Winner
Thiago Monteiro
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Estimated games
25Bet365 line 24.5
Recent form · 10 last
Thiago Monteiro
7-3 (W-L)
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Thiago Monteiro
1–0
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Thiago Monteiro 1549 · Pierre-Hugues Herbert 1499
| Thiago Monteiro | Pierre-Hugues Herbert | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 61% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Thiago Monteiro (rating 1549 vs 1499).
- Pierre-Hugues Herbert dominates on serve: 10.8 aces and 48.1% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Thiago Monteiro 1–0 Pierre-Hugues Herbert (1).
- Note: Pierre-Hugues Herbert makes many double faults (5.7/match).
Statistics
| Thiago Monteiro | Pierre-Hugues Herbert | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 70% (10) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1.1 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.8-12.5 | 13.2-13.1 |
| Aces | 4.8 | 10.8 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 5.7 |
| 1st serve % | 67.1% | 76.2% |
| Break % | 49.9% | 48.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25 · Bet365 line 24.5 · +0.5
Over 24.5: 53% · 1.83
Under 24.5: 47% · 1.83
H2H · Thiago Monteiro 1 – 0 Pierre-Hugues Herbert (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Thiago Monteiro 1–0 Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/17 ATP Rome Qual | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Thiago Monteiro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/05 | Pol Martin Tiffon Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 19/05 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/05 | Andy Andrade Challenger Zagreb · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 11/05 | Andrej Nedic Challenger Zagreb · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 10/05 | Noa Vukadin Challenger Zagreb · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 23/03 | Pedro Sakamoto Challenger Sao Paulo · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 14/03 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri Challenger Santiago · Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 13/03 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo Challenger Santiago · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 13/03 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Santiago · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Paul Jubb Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 08/06 | Martin Landaluce ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 07/06 | Mert Alkaya ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/06 | Daniil Glinka ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 24/05 | Lorenzo Sonego French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 25-25 | L |
| 22/05 | Leandro Riedi French Open · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 19/05 | Kaichi Uchida French Open · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 11/05 | Sumit Nagal Challenger Bordeaux · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/04 | Zizou Bergs Challenger Aix en Provence · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 29/04 | Dusan Lajovic Challenger Aix en Provence · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Thiago Monteiro vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert?
Our model gives 59% to Thiago Monteiro, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.