Prediction: Marko Topo vs Pol Martin Tiffon
Prediction summary
Winner
Marko Topo
Pol Martin Tiffon
Estimated games
22.2Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Marko Topo
3-7 (W-L)
Pol Martin Tiffon
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marko Topo 1435 · Pol Martin Tiffon 1530
| Marko Topo | Pol Martin Tiffon | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 38% | 63% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pol Martin Tiffon (rating 1435 vs 1530).
- Pol Martin Tiffon is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Marko Topo makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Marko Topo | Pol Martin Tiffon | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 30% (10) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.7 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-13.3 | 11.5-10.2 |
| Aces | 2.4 | 3.9 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 64% | 73.8% |
| Break % | 29.4% | 34.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +0.7
Over 21.5: 55% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 45% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marko Topo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Lorenzo Giustino Challenger Troyes · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 30/06 | Leo Raquillet Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 24/06 | Martin Krumich Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 14/06 | Ryan Seggerman Challenger Parma · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 08/06 | Federico Cina Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Emilio Nava Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Lorenzo Giustino Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 25/05 | Lorenzo Giustino Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 16/05 | Hugo Gaston ATP Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Pol Martin Tiffon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Gilles Arnaud Bailly Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 29/05 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 28/05 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 26/05 | Pietro Orlando Fellin Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 21/05 | Thiago Monteiro Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 18/05 | Yannick Theodor Alexandrescou Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/05 | Jay Clarke Challenger Tunis · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 12/05 | Charles Broom Challenger Tunis · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/05 | Lukas Pokorny Challenger Tunis · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marko Topo vs Pol Martin Tiffon?
Our model gives 63% to Pol Martin Tiffon, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.