Prediction: Luca Nardi vs Andrea Guerrieri
Prediction summary
Winner
Luca Nardi
Andrea Guerrieri
Estimated games
23.2Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Luca Nardi
5-5 (W-L)
Andrea Guerrieri
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Nardi 1507 · Andrea Guerrieri 1494
| Luca Nardi | Andrea Guerrieri | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Luca Nardi | Andrea Guerrieri | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (4) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.2 | 1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-12.5 | 10.7-11.3 |
| Aces | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 68.6% | 63.9% |
| Break % | 48.4% | 44.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +1.7
Over 21.5: 62% · 1.72
Under 21.5: 38% · 2.00
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Nardi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Otto Virtanen Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Rio Noguchi Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/06 | Remy Bertola Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 14/06 | Giles Hussey Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/06 | Oscar Weightman Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 10/06 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 04/06 | Remy Bertola Challenger Perugia · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 02/06 | Oriol Roca Batalla Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 29/05 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 27/05 | Lorenzo Giustino Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
Andrea Guerrieri
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Hugo Dellien Challenger Trieste · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Oriol Roca Batalla Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/06 | Kyrian Jacquet Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/06 | David Goffin Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 15/06 | Charles Broom Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/06 | Filippo Romano Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 12/06 | Francesco Forti Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 10/06 | Alexander Vasilev Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 08/06 | Dalibor Svrcina Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 22/05 | Max Alcala Gurri Challenger Cervia · Clay |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Nardi vs Andrea Guerrieri?
Our model gives 56% to Luca Nardi, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.