Tennis · WTA Bastad · 11/07, 14:00
Prediction: Simona Waltert vs Paula Badosa
Prediction summary
Winner
Simona Waltert
Paula Badosa
Estimated games
20.8Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Simona Waltert
5-5 (W-L)
Paula Badosa
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Simona Waltert 1534 · Paula Badosa 1549
| Simona Waltert | Paula Badosa | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Paula Badosa makes many double faults (6.1/match).
Statistics
| Simona Waltert | Paula Badosa | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 63% (8) | 80% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.3-8.7 | 11.2-9.9 |
| Aces | 2.5 | 4.4 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 6.1 |
| 1st serve % | 68.6% | 70.6% |
| Break % | 51% | 42.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.8 · Bet365 line 20.5
Over 20.5: 52% · 1.83
Under 20.5: 48% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Simona Waltert
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Kaitlin Quevedo WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 09/07 | Leyre Romero Gormaz WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/07 | Aneta Laboutkova WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 06/07 | Katarzyna Kawa WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Maria Camila Osorio Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 20/06 | Petra Marcinko WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 04/06 | Andrea Lazaro Garcia WTA Makarska · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Teodora Kostovic WTA Makarska · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 26/05 | Katerina Siniakova French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 18/05 | Anhelina Kalinina WTA Rabat · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Paula Badosa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Yulia Putintseva WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 09/07 | Varvara Lepchenko WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 08/07 | Emiliana Arango WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/07 | Marina Bassols Ribera WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Emma Navarro Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 19/06 | Linda Noskova WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Coco Gauff WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 16/06 | Suzan Lamens WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/06 | Daria Snigur WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 21/04 | Julia Grabher WTA Madrid · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Simona Waltert vs Paula Badosa?
Our model gives 59% to Paula Badosa, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.