Tennis · WTA Bastad · 09/07, 11:00
Prediction: Paula Badosa vs Varvara Lepchenko
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 51% to Varvara Lepchenko; the market gives 86% to Paula Badosa (odds 1.10).
On recent form, Paula Badosa is 5-5 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Varvara Lepchenko 6-4 over theirs.
69%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Paula Badosa 1491 · Varvara Lepchenko 1498
| Paula Badosa | Varvara Lepchenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 86% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Varvara Lepchenko dominates on serve: 7.6 aces and 47.8% break avg.
- Note: Paula Badosa makes many double faults (7.4/match).
Statistics
| Paula Badosa | Varvara Lepchenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 40% (5) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 1.3-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-11.3 | 12.8-12.6 |
| Aces | 4 | 7.6 |
| Double faults | 7.4 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 69.7% | 58% |
| Break % | 44.7% | 47.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +3.9
Over 19.5: 75% · 1.90
Under 19.5: 25% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Paula Badosa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Emiliana Arango WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/07 | Marina Bassols Ribera WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Emma Navarro Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 19/06 | Linda Noskova WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Coco Gauff WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 16/06 | Suzan Lamens WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/06 | Daria Snigur WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 21/04 | Julia Grabher WTA Madrid · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 14/04 | Eva Lys WTA Stuttgart · Clay |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 07/04 | Lilli Tagger WTA Linz · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Varvara Lepchenko
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Tamara Korpatsch WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 07/07 | Lisa Zaar WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 23/06 | Anastasia Gasanova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 11/06 | Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva WTA Modena · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Noemi Basiletti WTA Modena · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/06 | Tyra Caterina Grant WTA Foggia · Clay |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 01/06 | Iryna Shymanovich WTA Foggia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 19/05 | Lucia Bronzetti French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 12/05 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Parma · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 28/04 | Laura Pigossi WTA La Bisbal D'Emporda · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Paula Badosa vs Varvara Lepchenko?
Our model gives 69% to Paula Badosa, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.