Tennis · WTA Bastad · 10/07, 12:30
Prediction: Yulia Putintseva vs Paula Badosa
Prediction summary
Winner
Yulia Putintseva
Paula Badosa
Estimated games
21.8Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Yulia Putintseva
5-5 (W-L)
Paula Badosa
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Yulia Putintseva
1–4
Paula Badosa
(5 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yulia Putintseva 1556 · Paula Badosa 1516
| Yulia Putintseva | Paula Badosa | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 38% | 63% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yulia Putintseva (rating 1556 vs 1516).
- Head-to-head: Yulia Putintseva 1–4 Paula Badosa (5).
- Note: Paula Badosa makes many double faults (7.5/match).
Statistics
| Yulia Putintseva | Paula Badosa | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 75% (8) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-9.9 | 11.5-11.1 |
| Aces | 1.3 | 4.2 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 7.5 |
| 1st serve % | 59.5% | 70.7% |
| Break % | 53.4% | 42.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +1.3
Over 20.5: 59% · 1.83
Under 20.5: 41% · 1.83
H2H · Yulia Putintseva 1 – 4 Paula Badosa (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Yulia Putintseva 1–4 Paula Badosa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/03/26 WTA Indian Wells | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/08/24 WTA Cincinnati | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 30/05/24 French Open Women | 1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 27/03/22 WTA Miami | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/07/21 Wimbledon Women | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yulia Putintseva
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Sinja Kraus WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/07 | Lola Radivojevic WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/07 | Martha Matoula WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Tatjana Maria Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Alicia Dudeney WTA Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Maria Camila Osorio French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 17-20 | L |
| 25/05 | Talia Gibson French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 17/05 | Oleksandra Oliynykova WTA Strasbourg · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 16/05 | Antonia Ruzic WTA Strasbourg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/05 | Veronika Podrez WTA Paris · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Paula Badosa
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Varvara Lepchenko WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 08/07 | Emiliana Arango WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/07 | Marina Bassols Ribera WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Emma Navarro Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 19/06 | Linda Noskova WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Coco Gauff WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 16/06 | Suzan Lamens WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/06 | Daria Snigur WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 21/04 | Julia Grabher WTA Madrid · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 14/04 | Eva Lys WTA Stuttgart · Clay |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yulia Putintseva vs Paula Badosa?
Our model gives 54% to Paula Badosa, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.