Tennis · WTA Bastad · 10/07, 11:00
Prediction: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Simona Waltert
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 57% to Kaitlin Quevedo; the market gives 58% to Simona Waltert (odds 1.61).
Recent form leaves Kaitlin Quevedo with 6 wins and 4 losses over 10 games; Simona Waltert has piled up 5-5 in the same span.
51%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kaitlin Quevedo 1559 · Simona Waltert 1507
| Kaitlin Quevedo | Simona Waltert | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kaitlin Quevedo (rating 1559 vs 1507).
- Kaitlin Quevedo is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Kaitlin Quevedo | Simona Waltert | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 75% (8) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-10.5 | 10.5-9.8 |
| Aces | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 63.4% | 67.9% |
| Break % | 40.6% | 50.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +1.1
Over 20.5: 57% · 1.90
Under 20.5: 43% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kaitlin Quevedo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Irene Burillo Escorihuela WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 08/07 | Kajsa Rinaldo Persson WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 06/07 | Tiana Tian Deng WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/06 | Claire Liu Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Sayaka Ishii Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 12/06 | Laura Samsonova WTA Modena · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Jeline Vandromme WTA Modena · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 08/06 | Jazmin Ortenzi WTA Modena · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 27/05 | Elina Svitolina French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Leolia Jeanjean French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
Simona Waltert
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Leyre Romero Gormaz WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/07 | Aneta Laboutkova WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 06/07 | Katarzyna Kawa WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Maria Camila Osorio Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 20/06 | Petra Marcinko WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 04/06 | Andrea Lazaro Garcia WTA Makarska · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Teodora Kostovic WTA Makarska · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 26/05 | Katerina Siniakova French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 18/05 | Anhelina Kalinina WTA Rabat · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 08/05 | Hailey Baptiste WTA Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kaitlin Quevedo vs Simona Waltert?
Our model gives 51% to Simona Waltert, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.