Tennis · Wimbledon · 12/07, 17:00
Prediction: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev
Prediction summary
Winner
Jannik Sinner
Alexander Zverev
Estimated games
26.4Bet365 line 38.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jannik Sinner
9-1 (W-L)
Alexander Zverev
10-0 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jannik Sinner
9–1
Alexander Zverev
(10 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jannik Sinner 1639 · Alexander Zverev 1605
| Jannik Sinner | Alexander Zverev | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 80% | 20% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Jannik Sinner 9–1 Alexander Zverev (10).
Statistics
| Jannik Sinner | Alexander Zverev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 90% |
| Win % · Grass | 100% (6) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.7-0.6 | 2.5-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 18.9-13.9 | 18.3-13.9 |
| Aces | 13.5 | 13.7 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 81.2% | 81.9% |
| Break % | 38.3% | 39.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.4 · Bet365 line 38.5 · -12.1
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
H2H · Jannik Sinner 9 – 1 Alexander Zverev (10)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jannik Sinner 9–1 Alexander Zverev
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 ATP Madrid | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 11/04/26 ATP Monte Carlo | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/03/26 ATP Miami | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/03/26 ATP Indian Wells | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 12/11/25 ATP Finals | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/11/25 ATP Paris | 2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 26/10/25 ATP Vienna | 2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 26/01/25 Australian Open | 3-0 | 19-12 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jannik Sinner
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Novak Djokovic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-12 | W |
| 07/07 | Jan-Lennard Struff Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
| 05/07 | Shintaro Mochizuki Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 03/07 | Jenson Brooksby Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 01/07 | Nuno Borges Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-16 | W |
| 29/06 | Miomir Kecmanovic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 28-21 | W |
| 28/05 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 19-24 | L |
| 26/05 | Clement Tabur French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 17/05 | Casper Ruud ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 16/05 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Alexander Zverev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Arthur Fery Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 08/07 | Taylor Fritz Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 07/07 | Jiri Lehecka Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-21 | W |
| 04/07 | Marcos Giron Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 02/07 | Valentin Royer Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 30/06 | Alexander Blockx Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 26-23 | W |
| 20/06 | Taylor Fritz ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 19/06 | Raphael Collignon ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 18/06 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 16/06 | Vit Kopriva ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev?
Our model gives 69% to Jannik Sinner, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.