Prediction: Felix Auger Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 51% to Felix Auger Aliassime; the market gives 66% to Novak Djokovic (odds 1.44).
Recent form leaves Felix Auger Aliassime with 7 wins and 3 losses over 10 games; Novak Djokovic has piled up 9-1 in the same span.
| Felix Auger Aliassime | Novak Djokovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Novak Djokovic dominates on serve: 9.2 aces and 46.8% break avg.
Statistics
| Felix Auger Aliassime | Novak Djokovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 78% (9) | 100% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2-1.1 | 2.4-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 17.5-14.2 | 19.8-17.2 |
| Aces | 14.2 | 9.2 |
| Double faults | 3 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 81.3% | 74% |
| Break % | 37.9% | 46.8% |
H2H · Felix Auger Aliassime 1 – 1 Novak Djokovic (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Felix Auger Aliassime 1–1 Novak Djokovic
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/22 Laver Cup | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/05/22 ATP Rome | 0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Felix Auger Aliassime
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 31-24 | W |
| 03/07 | Michael Zheng Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-9 | W |
| 01/07 | Dino Prizmic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
| 29/06 | Alexander Shevchenko Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 19/06 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 17/06 | Learner Tien ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 15/06 | Nuno Borges ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 12/06 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Marton Fucsovics ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/06 | Flavio Cobolli French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 18-22 | L |
Novak Djokovic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Roman Safiullin Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 22-18 | W |
| 03/07 | Arthur Rinderknech Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 21-21 | W |
| 01/07 | Stefanos Tsitsipas Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
| 29/06 | Yibing Wu Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-19 | W |
| 29/05 | Joao Fonseca French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 25-28 | L |
| 27/05 | Valentin Royer French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 24-15 | W |
| 24/05 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 24-17 | W |
| 08/05 | Dino Prizmic ATP Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 12/03 | Jack Draper ATP Indian Wells · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 09/03 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Indian Wells · Hard |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Felix Auger Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic?
Our model gives 58% to Novak Djokovic, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.