Prediction: Jannik Sinner vs Jan-Lennard Struff
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 59% to Jannik Sinner; the market gives 94% to Jannik Sinner (odds 1.03).
Over their last 10 matches, Jannik Sinner sits at 9-1 (W-L), while Jan-Lennard Struff arrives on a 5-5 run.
| Jannik Sinner | Jan-Lennard Struff | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 94% | 6% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jannik Sinner (rating 1607 vs 1546).
- Jannik Sinner dominates on serve: 11 aces and 46% break avg.
- Jannik Sinner is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Jannik Sinner 3–0 Jan-Lennard Struff (3).
- Note: Jan-Lennard Struff makes many double faults (5.1/match).
Statistics
| Jannik Sinner | Jan-Lennard Struff | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 100% (4) | 71% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.5-0.6 | 1.7-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 17.5-12.4 | 18-18.1 |
| Aces | 11 | 14.8 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 5.1 |
| 1st serve % | 79.4% | 76.2% |
| Break % | 46% | 32% |
H2H · Jannik Sinner 3 – 0 Jan-Lennard Struff (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jannik Sinner 3–0 Jan-Lennard Struff
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/24 ATP Halle | 2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 11/04/24 ATP Monte Carlo | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/03/24 ATP Indian Wells | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jannik Sinner
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Shintaro Mochizuki Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 03/07 | Jenson Brooksby Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 01/07 | Nuno Borges Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-16 | W |
| 29/06 | Miomir Kecmanovic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 28-21 | W |
| 28/05 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 19-24 | L |
| 26/05 | Clement Tabur French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 17/05 | Casper Ruud ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 16/05 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 14/05 | Andrey Rublev ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 12/05 | Andrea Pellegrino ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Jan-Lennard Struff
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Daniil Medvedev Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 21-17 | W |
| 02/07 | Brandon Nakashima Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 31-31 | W |
| 29/06 | Sebastian Baez Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 26-24 | W |
| 23/06 | Nuno Borges ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Martin Landaluce ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 10/06 | Alexander Bublik ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 09/06 | Alexis Galarneau ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 28/05 | Jaime Faria French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 13-20 | L |
| 26/05 | Alexander Bublik French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 26-21 | W |
| 18/05 | Jakub Mensik ATP Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jannik Sinner vs Jan-Lennard Struff?
Our model gives 78% to Jannik Sinner, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.