Prediction: Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 57% to Jannik Sinner; the market gives 76% to Jannik Sinner (odds 1.25).
Recent form leaves Jannik Sinner with 9 wins and 1 losses over 10 games; Novak Djokovic has piled up 9-1 in the same span.
| Jannik Sinner | Novak Djokovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 76% | 24% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jannik Sinner (rating 1621 vs 1571).
- Jannik Sinner dominates on serve: 12.3 aces and 44% break avg.
- Novak Djokovic dominates on serve: 10 aces and 46.3% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Jannik Sinner 8–2 Novak Djokovic (10).
Statistics
| Jannik Sinner | Novak Djokovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 100% (5) | 100% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.6-0.6 | 2.5-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 18.3-13.3 | 21.4-18.6 |
| Aces | 12.3 | 10 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 79.8% | 73.7% |
| Break % | 44% | 46.3% |
H2H · Jannik Sinner 8 – 2 Novak Djokovic (10)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jannik Sinner 8–2 Novak Djokovic
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/01/26 Australian Open | 2-3 | 23-25 | L |
| 16/10/25 Six Kings Slam | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/07/25 Wimbledon | 3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 06/06/25 French Open | 3-0 | 20-15 | W |
| 17/10/24 Six Kings Slam | 2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 13/10/24 ATP Shanghai | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/01/24 Australian Open | 3-1 | 24-13 | W |
| 25/11/23 Davis Cup | 2-1 | 15-13 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jannik Sinner
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Jan-Lennard Struff Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
| 05/07 | Shintaro Mochizuki Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 03/07 | Jenson Brooksby Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 01/07 | Nuno Borges Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-16 | W |
| 29/06 | Miomir Kecmanovic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 28-21 | W |
| 28/05 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 19-24 | L |
| 26/05 | Clement Tabur French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 17/05 | Casper Ruud ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 16/05 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 14/05 | Andrey Rublev ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Novak Djokovic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Felix Auger Aliassime Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 29-28 | W |
| 05/07 | Roman Safiullin Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 22-18 | W |
| 03/07 | Arthur Rinderknech Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 21-21 | W |
| 01/07 | Stefanos Tsitsipas Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
| 29/06 | Yibing Wu Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-19 | W |
| 29/05 | Joao Fonseca French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 25-28 | L |
| 27/05 | Valentin Royer French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 24-15 | W |
| 24/05 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 24-17 | W |
| 08/05 | Dino Prizmic ATP Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 12/03 | Jack Draper ATP Indian Wells · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic?
Our model gives 68% to Jannik Sinner, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.