Tennis · M15 Tokyo · 11/07, 03:00
Prediction: Naoki Nakagawa vs Koki Matsuda
Prediction summary
Winner
Naoki Nakagawa
Koki Matsuda
Estimated games
21.1
Recent form · 10 last
Naoki Nakagawa
5-5 (W-L)
Koki Matsuda
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Naoki Nakagawa
1–0
Koki Matsuda
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Naoki Nakagawa 1531 · Koki Matsuda 1542
| Naoki Nakagawa | Koki Matsuda | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 51% | 49% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Naoki Nakagawa 1–0 Koki Matsuda (1).
Statistics
| Naoki Nakagawa | Koki Matsuda | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.1 | 1.2-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-11.2 | 9.7-8.9 |
| Aces | 9.2 | 5.8 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 80.4% | 74.8% |
| Break % | 36.6% | 39.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
H2H · Naoki Nakagawa 1 – 0 Koki Matsuda (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Naoki Nakagawa 1–0 Koki Matsuda
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09/23 ITF M25 Sapporo | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Naoki Nakagawa
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Shintaro Imai M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 09/07 | Naoya Honda M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 08/07 | Sanhui Shin M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/07 | Ryota Tanuma M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/06 | Jake Delaney M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 19/06 | Renta Tokuda M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-0 | 6-4 | W |
| 18/06 | Colin Sinclair M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 16/06 | Leo Vithoontien M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 09/06 | Takuya Kumasaka M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 29/03 | Yusuke Takahashi Challenger Miyazaki · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Koki Matsuda
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Makoto Ochi M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/07 | Ryuki Matsuda M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/07 | Reiya Komagata M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 03/07 | Matthew Dellavedova M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Reiya Komagata M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | Shinji Hazawa M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/06 | Aoran Wang M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Artem Alekseychuk M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 29/05 | Sora Fukuda M15 Karuizawa · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Kentaro Otsuka M15 Karuizawa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Naoki Nakagawa vs Koki Matsuda?
Our model gives 50% to Naoki Nakagawa, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.