Tennis · M15 Tokyo · 10/07, 03:00

Prediction: Shintaro Imai vs Naoki Nakagawa

Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 54% to Shintaro Imai; the market gives 50% to Shintaro Imai (odds 1.83).

On recent form, Shintaro Imai is 7-3 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Naoki Nakagawa 4-6 over theirs.

52%1
52% 48%
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shintaro Imai 1535 · Naoki Nakagawa 1507
Shintaro ImaiNaoki Nakagawa
Our model54%46%
Market50%50%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Match keys

  • Head-to-head: Shintaro Imai 0–2 Naoki Nakagawa (2).

Statistics

Shintaro ImaiNaoki Nakagawa
Win %60%50%
Win % · Hard 60% (10) 50% (10)
Sets (G-P)1.3-0.91-1.2
Games (G-P)11.7-8.911.1-11.1
Aces4.710.4
Double faults1.62.9
1st serve %76.5%81%
Break %45.4%33.9%
Estimated total games (ours) 21.6

H2H · Shintaro Imai 02 Naoki Nakagawa (2)

Head-to-head (H2H) · Shintaro Imai 02 Naoki Nakagawa

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DateSetsGamesRes.
08/10/19
ITF M25 Tay Ninh
0-23-12L
26/03/15
ITF Japan F3
1-214-16L

Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Shintaro Imai

WWLWW

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Date Opponent Sets Games Res.
09/07 Kokoro Isomura
M15 Tokyo · ~Hard
2-0 12-4 W
08/07 Taki Adachi
M15 Tokyo · ~Hard
2-0 12-3 W
03/07 Kasidit Samrej
M15 Tokyo · ~Hard
1-2 13-17 L
02/07 Hikaru Shiraishi
M15 Tokyo · ~Hard
2-0 12-2 W
01/07 Yuki Mochizuki
M15 Tokyo · ~Hard
2-1 16-13 W
18/06 Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong
M15 Maanshan · ~Hard
0-2 9-13 L
16/06 Tianhui Zhang
M15 Maanshan · ~Hard
2-0 12-3 W
09/06 Uisung Park
M15 Maanshan · ~Hard
0-2 11-14 L
30/05 Yan Cheng Chen
M15 Luan · ~Hard
0-2 8-12 L
29/05 Lachlan Mcfadzean
M15 Luan · ~Hard
2-0 12-8 W

Naoki Nakagawa

WLLWW

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Date Opponent Sets Games Res.
09/07 Naoya Honda
M15 Tokyo · ~Hard
2-1 16-9 W
08/07 Sanhui Shin
M15 Tokyo · ~Hard
2-0 12-8 W
01/07 Ryota Tanuma
M15 Tokyo · ~Hard
0-2 6-12 L
20/06 Jake Delaney
M15 Tokyo · ~Hard
0-2 11-14 L
19/06 Renta Tokuda
M15 Tokyo · ~Hard
1-0 6-4 W
18/06 Colin Sinclair
M15 Tokyo · ~Hard
2-1 17-16 W
16/06 Leo Vithoontien
M15 Tokyo · ~Hard
2-0 12-8 W
09/06 Takuya Kumasaka
M15 Tokyo · ~Hard
0-2 10-14 L
29/03 Yusuke Takahashi
Challenger Miyazaki · Hard
0-2 8-12 L
24/03 Yuta Kikuchi
M15 Tsukuba · ~Hard
1-2 13-14 L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shintaro Imai vs Naoki Nakagawa?

Our model gives 52% to Shintaro Imai, using surface Elo on hard.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.