Prediction: Koki Matsuda vs Makoto Ochi
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 51% to Makoto Ochi; the market gives 77% to Koki Matsuda (odds 1.22).
Over their last 10 matches, Koki Matsuda sits at 6-4 (W-L), while Makoto Ochi arrives on a 5-5 run.
64%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Koki Matsuda 1529 · Makoto Ochi 1535
| Koki Matsuda | Makoto Ochi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 77% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Koki Matsuda dominates on serve: 6 aces and 41.9% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Koki Matsuda 0–1 Makoto Ochi (1).
Statistics
| Koki Matsuda | Makoto Ochi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 57% (7) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-0.8 | 1.2-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.7-8.8 | 9.5-10.2 |
| Aces | 6 | 2.1 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 1st serve % | 75.5% | 66.6% |
| Break % | 41.9% | 36.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.7
H2H · Koki Matsuda 0 – 1 Makoto Ochi (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Koki Matsuda 0–1 Makoto Ochi
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/23 ITF M25 Tainan | 1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Koki Matsuda
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Ryuki Matsuda M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/07 | Reiya Komagata M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 03/07 | Matthew Dellavedova M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Reiya Komagata M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | Shinji Hazawa M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/06 | Aoran Wang M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Artem Alekseychuk M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 29/05 | Sora Fukuda M15 Karuizawa · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Kentaro Otsuka M15 Karuizawa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/05 | Ko Suzuki M15 Karuizawa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Makoto Ochi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Kasidit Samrej M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 08/07 | Taisei Ichikawa M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 07/07 | Shu Muto M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 12-11 | W |
| 01/07 | Maximus Jones M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 30/06 | Kazuma Kawachi M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/06 | Shu Matsuoka M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/05 | Uisung Park M15 Gimcheon · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 21/05 | Tai Leonard Sach M15 Gimcheon · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Hoyoung Roh M15 Gimcheon · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/05 | Seung-Min Oh M15 Gimcheon · ~Hard |
1-1 | 10-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Koki Matsuda vs Makoto Ochi?
Our model gives 64% to Koki Matsuda, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.