Tennis · Challenger Newport · 09/07, 22:30
Prediction: Jacob Fearnley vs Stefan Kozlov
See it on the live radar ↗Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 53% to Stefan Kozlov; the market gives 77% to Jacob Fearnley (odds 1.22).
Over their last 10 matches, Jacob Fearnley sits at 3-7 (W-L), while Stefan Kozlov arrives on a 7-3 run.
63%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jacob Fearnley 1540 · Stefan Kozlov 1558
| Jacob Fearnley | Stefan Kozlov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 77% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Jacob Fearnley makes many double faults (5.6/match).
Statistics
| Jacob Fearnley | Stefan Kozlov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 70% (10) | 100% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.4 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.4-13.6 | 12.2-10.1 |
| Aces | 5.3 | 1.3 |
| Double faults | 5.6 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 71.7% | 65.3% |
| Break % | 37.2% | 53.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jacob Fearnley
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 02/07 | Jaume Munar Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-19 | L |
| 30/06 | Alex Michelsen Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 25-19 | W |
| 17/06 | Benjamin Bonzi Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Dane Sweeny Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 14/06 | Bu Yunchaokete Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Filippo Romano Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 13/06 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 12/06 | Keegan Smith Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 10/06 | Luca Nardi Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
Stefan Kozlov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Yibing Wu Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 07/07 | Garrett Johns Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/07 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 12/05 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Valencia · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 11/05 | Mario Mansilla Diez Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 22/04 | Nick Hardt Challenger Savannah · Clay |
1-2 | 8-14 | L |
| 20/04 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Savannah · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/04 | Alex Rybakov Challenger Tallahassee · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/04 | Kilian Feldbausch Challenger Tallahassee · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 12/04 | Strong Kirchheimer Challenger Tallahassee · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jacob Fearnley vs Stefan Kozlov?
Our model gives 63% to Jacob Fearnley, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.