Tennis · M15 Bucharest · 10/07, 09:00
Prediction: Niccolo Catini vs Ilya Snitari
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 61% to Ilya Snitari; the market gives 86% to Ilya Snitari (odds 1.10).
Over their last 10 matches, Niccolo Catini sits at 3-7 (W-L), while Ilya Snitari arrives on a 8-2 run.
75%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Niccolo Catini 1451 · Ilya Snitari 1532
| Niccolo Catini | Ilya Snitari | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 14% | 86% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ilya Snitari (rating 1451 vs 1532).
- Ilya Snitari is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Niccolo Catini | Ilya Snitari | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (9) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.6 | 1.4-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 7.9-11 | 11.1-9 |
| Aces | 1 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 55.8% | 65.6% |
| Break % | 39.2% | 43.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Niccolo Catini
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Brendan McDonald M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 14/06 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Sebastiano Cocola M15 Messina · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-9 | L |
| 30/04 | Daniel Rincon M25 Castelldefels · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/04 | Tito Chavez M25 Castelldefels · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/04 | Peter Fajta M15 Dubrovnik · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 02/04 | Giuseppe La Vela M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 1-11 | L |
| 01/04 | Marco Furlanetto M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-15 | W |
| 18/03 | Silvio Mencaglia M15 Foggia · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/02 | Juan Carlos Fuentes Vasquez M15 San Jose |
0-2 | 5-8 | L |
Ilya Snitari
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Stefan Adrian Andreescu M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/07 | Niccolo Ciavarella M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/07 | Semen Pankin M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 02/07 | Marko Bekeni M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 13/06 | Rihards Neimanis Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 12/06 | Doni Gashi Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 11/06 | Aleksandre Bakshi Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 10/06 | Kalin Ivanovski Davis Cup |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 26/05 | Zdenek Kolar Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/05 | Radu Mihai Papoe M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Niccolo Catini vs Ilya Snitari?
Our model gives 75% to Ilya Snitari, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.