Tennis · M15 Bucharest · 09/07, 10:00
Prediction: Matei Florin Breazu vs Michele Mecarelli
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 63% to Matei Florin Breazu; the market gives 65% to Michele Mecarelli (odds 1.44).
On recent form, Matei Florin Breazu is 6-4 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Michele Mecarelli 5-5 over theirs.
52%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matei Florin Breazu 1562 · Michele Mecarelli 1470
| Matei Florin Breazu | Michele Mecarelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matei Florin Breazu (rating 1562 vs 1470).
- Matei Florin Breazu is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Matei Florin Breazu | Michele Mecarelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 70% (10) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-8.4 | 9.2-11.1 |
| Aces | 0.4 | 1.7 |
| Double faults | 1.2 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 64.8% | 58.3% |
| Break % | 50.8% | 37.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matei Florin Breazu
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Nicolas Bruna M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/07 | Dario Alexandru Ciobotaru M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/06 | Mate Valkusz UTR Pro Budapest · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Radek Chodora UTR Pro Budapest · Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 24/06 | Achilles Belkovics UTR Pro Budapest · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/06 | Marcell Bartakovics UTR Pro Budapest · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 22/06 | Gabor Hornung UTR Pro Budapest · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 10/06 | Julio Cesar Porras M15 Curtea de Arges · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 09/06 | Edoardo Cherie Ligniere M15 Curtea de Arges · ~Clay |
2-0 | 8-0 | W |
| 03/06 | Radu David Turcanu M25 Bistrita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Michele Mecarelli
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Oleksandr Ovcharenko M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 14/06 | Jakub Paul Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Petr Nesterov Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Gianmarco Ferrari M25 Grado · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 13/05 | Andrea Guerrieri M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
0-1 | 0-6 | L |
| 11/05 | Petros Tsitsipas M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/05 | Arthur Nagel M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 07/05 | Lorenzo Berto M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-1 | 12-15 | L |
| 06/05 | Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 05/05 | Manas Manoj Dhamne M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matei Florin Breazu vs Michele Mecarelli?
Our model gives 52% to Michele Mecarelli, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.