Tennis · M15 Bucharest · 09/07, 10:00
Prediction: Filippo Mazzola vs Freddy Murray
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 52% to Filippo Mazzola; the market gives 77% to Filippo Mazzola (odds 1.22).
Recent form leaves Filippo Mazzola with 5 wins and 5 losses over 10 games; Freddy Murray has piled up 2-8 in the same span.
66%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Filippo Mazzola 1524 · Freddy Murray 1507
| Filippo Mazzola | Freddy Murray | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 77% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Filippo Mazzola | Freddy Murray | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 100% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1 | 1.2-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.3-9.2 | 10.9-11.2 |
| Aces | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Double faults | 2 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 60.6% | 60.5% |
| Break % | 46.2% | 36.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Filippo Mazzola
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Radu David Turcanu M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 07/06 | Lucio Ratti Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Giuseppe La Vela M15 Kranjska Gora · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Adrien Burdet M15 Kranjska Gora · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/05 | Alexey Dubinin M15 Kranjska Gora · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 21/05 | Stefan Horia Haita M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Benjamin Pietri M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/05 | Manuel Mazza M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 12/05 | Lorenzo Bocchi M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 11/05 | Daniel Bagnolini M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
2-1 | 10-9 | W |
Freddy Murray
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Robert Guna M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-9 | W |
| 07/07 | Gheorghe Claudiu Schinteie M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
2-1 | 8-8 | W |
| 01/04 | John Patrick Popowich UTR Pro Murfreesboro · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 31/03 | Santiago Lora UTR Pro Murfreesboro · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 17/10 | Tomas Luis UTR Pro Murfreesboro · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 16/10 | Leandro Zgraggen UTR Pro Murfreesboro · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/10 | Hugo Maia UTR Pro Murfreesboro · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 14/10 | JanMagnus Johnson UTR Pro Murfreesboro · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Sasa Markovic UTR Pro Murfreesboro · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 31/07 | Oscar Weightman ITF M15 Dublin |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Filippo Mazzola vs Freddy Murray?
Our model gives 66% to Filippo Mazzola, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.