Tennis · Challenger Newport · 09/07, 21:30
Prediction: Adrian Mannarino vs Alexis Galarneau
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 52% to Alexis Galarneau; the market gives 77% to Adrian Mannarino (odds 1.22).
On recent form, Adrian Mannarino is 5-5 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Alexis Galarneau 3-7 over theirs.
64%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Adrian Mannarino 1522 · Alexis Galarneau 1536
| Adrian Mannarino | Alexis Galarneau | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 77% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Adrian Mannarino | Alexis Galarneau | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 60% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.2 | 1.5-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-12.3 | 14-13.9 |
| Aces | 3.6 | 6.1 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 69% | 73.3% |
| Break % | 48.8% | 30.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Adrian Mannarino
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Remy Bertola Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/07 | Alex De Minaur Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 30/06 | Titouan Droguet Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 21/06 | Nuno Borges ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Arthur Fery ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Jakub Mensik ATP Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 19-19 | W |
| 13/06 | Alex De Minaur ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Zhizhen Zhang ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 11/06 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 09/06 | Gabriel Diallo ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
Alexis Galarneau
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Juan Pablo Ficovich Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 24/06 | Oliver Tarvet Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/06 | Henry Searle Challenger Dublin · Grass |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 17/06 | Oliver Crawford Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 15/06 | Francesco Maestrelli Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 09/06 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 07/06 | Roman Safiullin ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 06/06 | Yu Hsiou Hsu ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 31/05 | Marc-Andrea Huesler Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Adrian Mannarino vs Alexis Galarneau?
Our model gives 64% to Adrian Mannarino, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.