Tennis · Challenger Newport · 09/07, 18:30
Prediction: Daniel Milavsky vs Bu Yunchaokete
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 62% to Bu Yunchaokete; the market gives 84% to Bu Yunchaokete (odds 1.13).
Recent form leaves Daniel Milavsky with 4 wins and 6 losses over 10 games; Bu Yunchaokete has piled up 9-1 in the same span.
74%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniel Milavsky 1528 · Bu Yunchaokete 1615
| Daniel Milavsky | Bu Yunchaokete | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 16% | 84% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bu Yunchaokete (rating 1528 vs 1615).
- Bu Yunchaokete dominates on serve: 7.6 aces and 50.1% break avg.
- Bu Yunchaokete is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Note: Daniel Milavsky makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Daniel Milavsky | Bu Yunchaokete | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 90% |
| Win % · Grass | 100% (3) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 1.9-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-12 | 13.7-10.2 |
| Aces | 4.3 | 7.6 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 66.6% | 79.9% |
| Break % | 54% | 50.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniel Milavsky
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Kaichi Uchida Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/07 | Quinn Vandecasteele Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 05/07 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 28/06 | Ozan Baris Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 10/06 | Lucas Marionneau M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 03/06 | Murphy Cassone Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Christian Langmo Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 01/06 | William Manning Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 27/05 | Colton Smith Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/05 | Ryan Colby M25 Pensacola · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
Bu Yunchaokete
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/06 | Clement Tabur Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 22/06 | Hugo Dellien Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/06 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/06 | Dane Sweeny Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 13/06 | Mark Lajal Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/06 | Chris Rodesch Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 07/06 | Otto Virtanen Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 07/06 | Arthur Fery Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 05/06 | Mark Lajal Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniel Milavsky vs Bu Yunchaokete?
Our model gives 74% to Bu Yunchaokete, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.