Tennis · Challenger Newport · 09/07, 20:00
Prediction: Jason Jung vs Alex Michelsen
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 54% to Alex Michelsen; the market gives 89% to Alex Michelsen (odds 1.07).
On recent form, Jason Jung is 4-6 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Alex Michelsen 6-4 over theirs.
74%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jason Jung 1482 · Alex Michelsen 1511
| Jason Jung | Alex Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 11% | 89% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Alex Michelsen dominates on serve: 6.1 aces and 50.1% break avg.
Statistics
| Jason Jung | Alex Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (2) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 1.8-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-12.8 | 15.3-14.7 |
| Aces | 4.8 | 6.1 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 66.7% | 69.1% |
| Break % | 46.8% | 50.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jason Jung
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | James McCabe Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/07 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 05/07 | Andres Martin Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 09/06 | Zdenek Kolar Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 05/05 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 29/04 | Giles Hussey Challenger Jiujiang · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 21/04 | Hyeon Chung Challenger Gwangju · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/11 | Yoshihito Nishioka Challenger Kobe · Hard |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 06/11 | Yoshihito Nishioka Challenger Taipei · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 05/11 | Arthur Weber Challenger Taipei · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
Alex Michelsen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Jacob Fearnley Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 19-25 | L |
| 29/05 | Rafael Jodar French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 25-29 | L |
| 27/05 | Nishesh Basavareddy French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 22-18 | W |
| 25/05 | Alexander Shevchenko French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 21/05 | Learner Tien ATP Geneva · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 20/05 | Stan Wawrinka ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 18/05 | Sebastian Baez ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/05 | Sebastian Ofner ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/04 | Pol Martin Tiffon Challenger Aix en Provence · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jason Jung vs Alex Michelsen?
Our model gives 74% to Alex Michelsen, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.