Tennis · Challenger Newport · 09/07, 17:00
Prediction: Arthur Gea vs Tristan Schoolkate
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 50% to Arthur Gea; the market gives 56% to Arthur Gea (odds 1.67).
Over their last 10 matches, Arthur Gea sits at 6-4 (W-L), while Tristan Schoolkate arrives on a 5-5 run.
53%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arthur Gea 1519 · Tristan Schoolkate 1518
| Arthur Gea | Tristan Schoolkate | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Arthur Gea dominates on serve: 7.3 aces and 42.3% break avg.
- Note: Arthur Gea makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Arthur Gea | Tristan Schoolkate | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 57% (7) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.2 | 1.1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-12.2 | 11.9-12.4 |
| Aces | 7.3 | 14.1 |
| Double faults | 5 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 73.1% | 72.8% |
| Break % | 42.3% | 32.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arthur Gea
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Tyler Zink Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/06 | Soonwoo Kwon Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 22/06 | Raul Brancaccio Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/06 | Billy Harris Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 15/06 | Anton Matusevich Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 12/06 | Remy Bertola Challenger Monastir · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 12/06 | Mark Lajal Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 09/06 | Francesco Maestrelli Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 24/05 | Karen Khachanov French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 9-19 | L |
| 19/05 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Tristan Schoolkate
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | August Holmgren Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 25/06 | Nicolas Mejia Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-18 | L |
| 24/06 | Daniel Evans Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 22/06 | Johannus Monday Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 12/06 | Oliver Tarvet Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Paul Jubb Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 02/06 | Arthur Fery Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 20/05 | Darwin Blanch French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Kimmer Coppejans French Open · Clay |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 29/04 | Fajing Sun Challenger Jiujiang · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arthur Gea vs Tristan Schoolkate?
Our model gives 53% to Arthur Gea, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.