Tennis · M15 Bucharest · 09/07, 10:30
Prediction: Ergi Kirkin vs William Mirarchi
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 53% to William Mirarchi; the market gives 79% to Ergi Kirkin (odds 1.17).
On recent form, Ergi Kirkin is 3-7 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and William Mirarchi 5-5 over theirs.
65%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ergi Kirkin 1483 · William Mirarchi 1503
| Ergi Kirkin | William Mirarchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 79% | 21% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Ergi Kirkin | William Mirarchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 20% (5) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 1.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-11.6 | 9.3-8.8 |
| Aces | 3.7 | 1.2 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 67% | 63.7% |
| Break % | 51.6% | 38.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ergi Kirkin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Valentin Vanta M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/07 | Hazem Naw M15 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 21/06 | Aziz Ouakaa M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/06 | Billy Blaydes M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-0 | 12-10 | W |
| 19/06 | Roger Pascual Ferra M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/06 | Danil Panarin M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 17/06 | Anas Bennour Dit Sahli M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/05 | Vuk Radjenovic M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/05 | Anton Matusevich Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 14/05 | Nikita Mashtakov M15 Prijedor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
William Mirarchi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Rares Andrei Golescu M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 23/06 | Lorenzo Bocchi M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Iannis Miletich M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
2-1 | 11-11 | W |
| 15/06 | Alessandro Spadola M25 Milano · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-11 | L |
| 05/06 | Lorenzo Gagliardo M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Alen Mujakic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 03/06 | Rajat Shirur M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/06 | Matteo Liusso M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/05 | Pablo Aunion M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Pablo Aunion M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ergi Kirkin vs William Mirarchi?
Our model gives 65% to Ergi Kirkin, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.