Prediction: Yuki Mochizuki vs Ryota Tanuma
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 77% to Ryota Tanuma; the market gives 69% to Ryota Tanuma (odds 1.36).
Recent form leaves Yuki Mochizuki with 1 wins and 9 losses over 10 games; Ryota Tanuma has piled up 9-1 in the same span.
| Yuki Mochizuki | Ryota Tanuma | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 77% |
| Market | 31% | 69% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ryota Tanuma (rating 1415 vs 1623).
- Ryota Tanuma is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Yuki Mochizuki | Ryota Tanuma | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 14% (7) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.6-1.8 | 1.9-0.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.6-13.1 | 12.1-6.6 |
| Aces | 4.2 | 3.4 |
| Double faults | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 63% | 75.3% |
| Break % | 40.2% | 50.4% |
H2H · Yuki Mochizuki 1 – 1 Ryota Tanuma (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Yuki Mochizuki 1–1 Ryota Tanuma
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/25 ITF M25 Sapporo | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 15/06/18 ITF Japan F8 | 2-1 | 17-12 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yuki Mochizuki
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Moerani Bouzige M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 01/07 | Shintaro Imai M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 17/06 | Takuya Kumasaka M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 09/06 | Taisei Ichikawa M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/05 | Philip Sekulic Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 27/04 | Gerard Campana Lee Challenger Shymkent · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 26/04 | Anton Chekhov Challenger Shymkent · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 19/04 | Bekkhan Atlangeriev Challenger Shymkent · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 12/04 | Khumoyun Sultanov Challenger Wuning Qual · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/04 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Wuning · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Ryota Tanuma
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Shion Yamada M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/07 | Kazuma Kawachi M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 02/07 | Maximus Jones M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 01/07 | Naoki Nakagawa M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/06 | Ren Nakamura M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 24/06 | Hunter Heck UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/06 | Asahi Harazaki UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/06 | Diordan Macababbad UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 23/06 | Shion Itsusaki UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/06 | Toshiki Karigyo UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yuki Mochizuki vs Ryota Tanuma?
Our model gives 72% to Ryota Tanuma, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.