Prediction: Naoya Honda vs Naoki Nakagawa
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 57% to Naoya Honda; the market gives 50% to Naoya Honda (odds 1.83).
Over their last 10 matches, Naoya Honda sits at 6-4 (W-L), while Naoki Nakagawa arrives on a 4-6 run.
53%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Naoya Honda 1534 · Naoki Nakagawa 1487
| Naoya Honda | Naoki Nakagawa | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Naoya Honda (rating 1534 vs 1487).
- Head-to-head: Naoya Honda 0–1 Naoki Nakagawa (1).
Statistics
| Naoya Honda | Naoki Nakagawa | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 0.8-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-11.4 | 10.5-11.5 |
| Aces | 5.4 | 9.6 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 72.5% | 79.2% |
| Break % | 47.1% | 32.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
H2H · Naoya Honda 0 – 1 Naoki Nakagawa (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Naoya Honda 0–1 Naoki Nakagawa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/23 ITF M25 Sapporo | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Naoya Honda
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Kazushi Idogaki M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/07 | Sora Fukuda M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 19/06 | Hunter Heck M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Takuya Kumasaka M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 17/06 | Azuma Visaya M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 14/06 | Jangjun Kim M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Alan Magadan M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 12/06 | Taisei Ichikawa M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 11/06 | Shu Matsuoka M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-1 | 15-16 | L |
| 09/06 | Hunter Heck M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Naoki Nakagawa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Sanhui Shin M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/07 | Ryota Tanuma M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/06 | Jake Delaney M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 19/06 | Renta Tokuda M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-0 | 6-4 | W |
| 18/06 | Colin Sinclair M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 16/06 | Leo Vithoontien M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 09/06 | Takuya Kumasaka M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 29/03 | Yusuke Takahashi Challenger Miyazaki · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 24/03 | Yuta Kikuchi M15 Tsukuba · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 20/03 | Emile Hudd M15 Nishi-Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Naoya Honda vs Naoki Nakagawa?
Our model gives 53% to Naoya Honda, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.