Tennis · Challenger Bogota · 09/07, 17:00
Prediction: Facundo Mena vs Tristan McCormick
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 52% to Facundo Mena; the market gives 73% to Facundo Mena (odds 1.28).
Recent form leaves Facundo Mena with 4 wins and 6 losses over 10 games; Tristan McCormick has piled up 6-4 in the same span.
63%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Facundo Mena 1483 · Tristan McCormick 1472
| Facundo Mena | Tristan McCormick | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Facundo Mena | Tristan McCormick | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 44% (9) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-11.5 | 11.3-11.9 |
| Aces | 6.6 | 6.5 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 70.7% | 69.9% |
| Break % | 39.7% | 36% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Facundo Mena
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Alafia Ayeni Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 30/06 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Quito · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 07/05 | Miguel Tobon Challenger Santos · Clay |
1-2 | 9-14 | L |
| 05/05 | Daniel Dutra Da Silva Challenger Santos · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 15/04 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/04 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Mexico City · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 03/04 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger San Luis Potosi · Clay |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 01/04 | Patrick Zahraj Challenger San Luis Potosi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 31/03 | Stefano Napolitano Challenger San Luis Potosi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/03 | Marc Polmans Challenger Morelia · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
Tristan McCormick
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05 | Quinn Vandecasteele M15 Vero Beach · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/05 | Alexis Gurmendi M15 Vero Beach · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 06/05 | Oliver Okonkwo M15 Vero Beach · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/02 | Maxwell Exsted M15 Naples · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/02 | Stefan Kozlov Challenger Metepec · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 10/02 | Robert Strombachs Challenger Baton Rouge · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/02 | Joshua Sheehy Challenger Cleveland · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 01/02 | Dragos Nicolae Cazacu Challenger Cleveland · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 28/01 | Adam Lynch M15 Naples · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 15/01 | Alexander Kotzen M25 Winston-Salem · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Facundo Mena vs Tristan McCormick?
Our model gives 63% to Facundo Mena, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.