Tennis · Challenger Bogota · 08/07, 17:00
Prediction: Alan Magadan vs Matias Soto
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 55% to Alan Magadan; the market gives 65% to Matias Soto (odds 1.44).
Over their last 10 matches, Alan Magadan sits at 7-3 (W-L), while Matias Soto arrives on a 7-3 run.
56%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alan Magadan 1559 · Matias Soto 1522
| Alan Magadan | Matias Soto | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Alan Magadan is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Alan Magadan 0–1 Matias Soto (1).
Statistics
| Alan Magadan | Matias Soto | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 75% (4) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.7 | 1.3-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.7-10 | 11.4-12.3 |
| Aces | 5 | 3.4 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 76.9% | 66.6% |
| Break % | 46.7% | 45.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.8
H2H · Alan Magadan 0 – 1 Matias Soto (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alan Magadan 0–1 Matias Soto
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/04/26 Challenger San Luis Potosi | 1-2 | 15-15 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alan Magadan
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Johan Alexander Rodriguez Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 03/07 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Quito · Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 01/07 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Pedro Sakamoto Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 13/06 | Naoya Honda M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 12/06 | Jake Delaney M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 09/06 | Hyeon Chung M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-7 | W |
| 05/06 | Hunter Heck UTR Pro Kakogawa · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/06 | Azuma Visaya UTR Pro Kakogawa · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 03/06 | Soma Fukuhara UTR Pro Kakogawa · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Matias Soto
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Juan Sebastian Osorio Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 01/07 | Juan Sebastian Osorio Challenger Quito · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 30/06 | Mwendwa Mbithi Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 26/06 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 22/06 | Ignacio Monzon Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/06 | Nick Hardt Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
1-2 | 7-15 | L |
| 17/06 | Santiago De La Fuente Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 16/06 | Johan Alexander Rodriguez Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 09/06 | Juan Estevez Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/04 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alan Magadan vs Matias Soto?
Our model gives 56% to Matias Soto, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.