Tennis · Challenger Bogota · 09/07, 17:00
Prediction: Hernan Casanova vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 52% to Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi; the market gives 51% to Hernan Casanova (odds 1.80).
On recent form, Hernan Casanova is 8-2 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 7-3 over theirs.
50%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hernan Casanova 1579 · Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 1591
| Hernan Casanova | Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 51% | 49% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Hernan Casanova | Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 70% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.6 | 1.7-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-9.5 | 13-10.7 |
| Aces | 1 | 2.8 |
| Double faults | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 1st serve % | 63.3% | 64.6% |
| Break % | 47.4% | 45.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hernan Casanova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Ignacio Monzon Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 05/07 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Quito · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 04/07 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 03/07 | Juan Sebastian Osorio Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/07 | Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Mario Andre Galarraga Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 26/06 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 23/06 | Eduardo Ribeiro Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 17/06 | Juan Estevez Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Hernando Jose Escurra Isnardi Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Sergio Luis Hernandez Ramirez Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/06 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 18/06 | Guido Ivan Justo Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 16/06 | Samuel Heredia Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 14/06 | Johan Alexander Rodriguez Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/06 | Guido Ivan Justo Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 12/06 | Carlos Maria Zarate Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 11/06 | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
2-1 | 19-12 | W |
| 09/06 | Juan Sebastian Gomez Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hernan Casanova vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi?
Our model gives 50% to Hernan Casanova, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.