Tennis · Challenger Newport · 08/07, 21:30
Prediction: Hayato Matsuoka vs Alex Michelsen
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 53% to Alex Michelsen; the market gives 89% to Alex Michelsen (odds 1.07).
Over their last 10 matches, Hayato Matsuoka sits at 4-6 (W-L), while Alex Michelsen arrives on a 5-5 run.
73%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hayato Matsuoka 1470 · Alex Michelsen 1494
| Hayato Matsuoka | Alex Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 11% | 89% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Alex Michelsen dominates on serve: 6.2 aces and 44.4% break avg.
- Note: Hayato Matsuoka makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Hayato Matsuoka | Alex Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | – | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.3 | 1.6-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.8-11.6 | 14.7-15.4 |
| Aces | 2.3 | 6.2 |
| Double faults | 5 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 67% | 68.8% |
| Break % | 43.3% | 44.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hayato Matsuoka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Patrick Maloney Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 05/07 | Matisse Farzam Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Liam Broady Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Henry Searle Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 01/06 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 31/05 | Jerry Roddick Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/05 | Michael Mmoh Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 05/05 | Maximus Jones Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 04/05 | Yusuke Takahashi Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
Alex Michelsen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Jacob Fearnley Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 19-25 | L |
| 29/05 | Rafael Jodar French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 25-29 | L |
| 27/05 | Nishesh Basavareddy French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 22-18 | W |
| 25/05 | Alexander Shevchenko French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 21/05 | Learner Tien ATP Geneva · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 20/05 | Stan Wawrinka ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 18/05 | Sebastian Baez ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/05 | Sebastian Ofner ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/04 | Pol Martin Tiffon Challenger Aix en Provence · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 26/04 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hayato Matsuoka vs Alex Michelsen?
Our model gives 73% to Alex Michelsen, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.