Tennis · Challenger Newport · 08/07, 18:10
Prediction: Andre Ilagan vs Rio Noguchi
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 59% to Andre Ilagan; the market gives 44% to Andre Ilagan (odds 2.10).
Over their last 10 matches, Andre Ilagan sits at 5-5 (W-L), while Rio Noguchi arrives on a 3-7 run.
51%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andre Ilagan 1543 · Rio Noguchi 1478
| Andre Ilagan | Rio Noguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Andre Ilagan (rating 1543 vs 1478).
- Rio Noguchi dominates on serve: 6.7 aces and 45.3% break avg.
- Andre Ilagan is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Andre Ilagan 0–2 Rio Noguchi (2).
Statistics
| Andre Ilagan | Rio Noguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 63% (8) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 1-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-12.2 | 12.3-13.9 |
| Aces | 3.6 | 6.7 |
| Double faults | 2 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 63.6% | 61.2% |
| Break % | 32.8% | 45.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.9
H2H · Andre Ilagan 0 – 2 Rio Noguchi (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Andre Ilagan 0–2 Rio Noguchi
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07/25 Challenger Winnipeg | 1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 13/01/25 Challenger Nonthaburi | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andre Ilagan
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Alex Rybakov Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 05/07 | Connor Plunkett Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Yosuke Watanuki Challenger Cary · Hard |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 07/06 | Adam Walton Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 06/06 | Karl Poling Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 05/06 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 04/06 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/06 | Fajing Sun Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 31/05 | Colton Smith Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 30/05 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
Rio Noguchi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Alex Martinez Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Luca Nardi Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Clement Tabur Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Hamish Stewart Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 14/06 | Paul Jubb Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 08/06 | Keegan Smith Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 07/06 | Patrick Brady Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 19/05 | Francesco Maestrelli French Open · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 08/05 | Jie Cui Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 06/05 | Fajing Sun Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andre Ilagan vs Rio Noguchi?
Our model gives 51% to Andre Ilagan, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.