Tennis · Challenger Newport · 08/07, 21:30
Prediction: Daniel Milavsky vs Kaichi Uchida
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 63% to Daniel Milavsky; the market gives 56% to Daniel Milavsky (odds 1.67).
On recent form, Daniel Milavsky is 4-6 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Kaichi Uchida 1-9 over theirs.
59%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniel Milavsky 1496 · Kaichi Uchida 1406
| Daniel Milavsky | Kaichi Uchida | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daniel Milavsky (rating 1496 vs 1406).
- Daniel Milavsky is in better form: 50% recent wins.
Statistics
| Daniel Milavsky | Kaichi Uchida | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 10% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (6) | 17% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 0.2-1.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-11.4 | 7.1-11.8 |
| Aces | 4.3 | 6.7 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 66.9% | 64.2% |
| Break % | 55.7% | 32.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniel Milavsky
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Quinn Vandecasteele Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 05/07 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 28/06 | Ozan Baris Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 10/06 | Lucas Marionneau M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 03/06 | Murphy Cassone Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Christian Langmo Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 01/06 | William Manning Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 27/05 | Colton Smith Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/05 | Ryan Colby M25 Pensacola · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 13/05 | Oren Vasser M25 Pensacola · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
Kaichi Uchida
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Jack Kennedy Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Bernard Tomic Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/06 | Quinn Vandecasteele Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 11/05 | Max Houkes Challenger Tunis · Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 05/05 | Soonwoo Kwon Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 21/04 | James McCabe Challenger Gwangju · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/04 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Busan · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 08/04 | Justin Boulais Challenger Wuning · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 06/04 | Alexandr Binda Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniel Milavsky vs Kaichi Uchida?
Our model gives 59% to Daniel Milavsky, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.