Tennis · WTA Bastad · 08/07, 12:30
Prediction: Varvara Lepchenko vs Tamara Korpatsch
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 58% to Tamara Korpatsch; the market gives 61% to Tamara Korpatsch (odds 1.53).
Recent form leaves Varvara Lepchenko with 5 wins and 5 losses over 10 games; Tamara Korpatsch has piled up 3-7 in the same span.
60%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Varvara Lepchenko 1472 · Tamara Korpatsch 1528
| Varvara Lepchenko | Tamara Korpatsch | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 39% | 61% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tamara Korpatsch (rating 1472 vs 1528).
- Varvara Lepchenko dominates on serve: 8.1 aces and 46.6% break avg.
Statistics
| Varvara Lepchenko | Tamara Korpatsch | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (9) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.6 | 0.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-13.6 | 10.2-11.9 |
| Aces | 8.1 | 0.7 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 57% | 60.3% |
| Break % | 46.6% | 44.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +2.8
Over 20.5: 69% · 1.90
Under 20.5: 31% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Varvara Lepchenko
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Lisa Zaar WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 23/06 | Anastasia Gasanova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 11/06 | Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva WTA Modena · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Noemi Basiletti WTA Modena · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/06 | Tyra Caterina Grant WTA Foggia · Clay |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 01/06 | Iryna Shymanovich WTA Foggia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 19/05 | Lucia Bronzetti French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 12/05 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Parma · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 28/04 | Laura Pigossi WTA La Bisbal D'Emporda · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 22/04 | Lucia Bronzetti WTA Oeiras · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Tamara Korpatsch
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Linea Bajraliu WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Coco Gauff Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 20/06 | Irina-Camelia Begu WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Mia Pohankova WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 29/05 | Elina Svitolina French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Xinyu Wang French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/05 | Sara Sorribes Tormo French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/05 | Alina Charaeva WTA Paris · Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 12/05 | Clara Burel WTA Paris · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Varvara Lepchenko vs Tamara Korpatsch?
Our model gives 60% to Tamara Korpatsch, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.