Prediction: Karolina Muchova vs Coco Gauff
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 57% to Karolina Muchova; the market gives 53% to Karolina Muchova (odds 1.80).
Recent form leaves Karolina Muchova with 8 wins and 2 losses over 10 games; Coco Gauff has piled up 7-3 in the same span.
| Karolina Muchova | Coco Gauff | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 53% | 47% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Karolina Muchova (rating 1622 vs 1573).
- Head-to-head: Karolina Muchova 1–6 Coco Gauff (7).
- Note: Coco Gauff makes many double faults (5.4/match).
Statistics
| Karolina Muchova | Coco Gauff | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 90% (10) | 83% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.4 | 1.7-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-8.2 | 14.2-11.2 |
| Aces | 5.5 | 4.2 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 5.4 |
| 1st serve % | 78.2% | 71.1% |
| Break % | 60.2% | 45.9% |
H2H · Karolina Muchova 1 – 6 Coco Gauff (7)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Karolina Muchova 1–6 Coco Gauff
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/26 WTA Stuttgart | 2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 26/03/26 WTA Miami | 0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 25/01/26 Australian Open Women | 1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 04/01/25 United Cup Women | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/10/24 WTA Beijing | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 08/09/23 US Open Women | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 20/08/23 WTA Cincinnati | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Karolina Muchova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Naomi Osaka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/07 | Barbora Krejcikova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 03/07 | Mananchaya Sawangkaew Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/07 | Shuai Zhang Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Anastasia Zakharova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/06 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 25/06 | Clara Tauson WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 24/06 | Irina-Camelia Begu WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 18/06 | Madison Keys WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Shuai Zhang WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Coco Gauff
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Jessica Pegula Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 05/07 | Belinda Bencic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 03/07 | Claire Liu Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 01/07 | Solana Sierra Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 29/06 | Tamara Korpatsch Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/06 | Paula Badosa WTA Berlin · Grass |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 30/05 | Anastasia Potapova French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 28/05 | Mayar Sherif French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/05 | Taylor Townsend French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/05 | Elina Svitolina WTA Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Karolina Muchova vs Coco Gauff?
Our model gives 55% to Karolina Muchova, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.