Tennis · Wimbledon Women · 07/07, 12:00
Prediction: Jessica Pegula vs Coco Gauff
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 54% to Jessica Pegula; the market gives 55% to Jessica Pegula (odds 1.73).
Over their last 10 matches, Jessica Pegula sits at 7-3 (W-L), while Coco Gauff arrives on a 8-2 run.
54%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jessica Pegula 1589 · Coco Gauff 1561
| Jessica Pegula | Coco Gauff | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 55% | 45% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Jessica Pegula 4–3 Coco Gauff (7).
- Note: Coco Gauff makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Jessica Pegula | Coco Gauff | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 88% (8) | 80% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 1.7-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-9.9 | 13.8-10.7 |
| Aces | 4.6 | 3.5 |
| Double faults | 1.2 | 4.8 |
| 1st serve % | 70.1% | 71.8% |
| Break % | 42.5% | 44.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.1 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.6
Over 22.5: 61% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 39% · 1.83
H2H · Jessica Pegula 4 – 3 Coco Gauff (7)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jessica Pegula 4–3 Coco Gauff
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/25 WTA Finals | 2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 12/10/25 WTA Wuhan | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/11/24 WTA Finals | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/06/24 WTA Berlin | 2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 04/11/23 WTA Finals | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 11/08/23 WTA Montreal | 2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 29/06/23 WTA Eastbourne | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jessica Pegula
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Iva Jovic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 03/07 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/07 | Sara Sorribes Tormo Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Darja Vidmanova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 21/06 | Linda Noskova WTA Berlin · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 20/06 | Aryna Sabalenka WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 19/06 | Madison Keys WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 17/06 | Katerina Siniakova WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/05 | Kimberly Birrell French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 13/05 | Iga Swiatek WTA Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Coco Gauff
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Belinda Bencic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 03/07 | Claire Liu Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 01/07 | Solana Sierra Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 29/06 | Tamara Korpatsch Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/06 | Paula Badosa WTA Berlin · Grass |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 30/05 | Anastasia Potapova French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 28/05 | Mayar Sherif French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/05 | Taylor Townsend French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/05 | Elina Svitolina WTA Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 14/05 | Sorana Cirstea WTA Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jessica Pegula vs Coco Gauff?
Our model gives 54% to Jessica Pegula, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.