Prediction: Marta Kostyuk vs Jasmine Paolini
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 60% to Marta Kostyuk; the market gives 64% to Marta Kostyuk (odds 1.50).
Recent form leaves Marta Kostyuk with 7 wins and 3 losses over 10 games; Jasmine Paolini has piled up 6-4 in the same span.
| Marta Kostyuk | Jasmine Paolini | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 64% | 36% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marta Kostyuk (rating 1589 vs 1518).
- Marta Kostyuk is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Marta Kostyuk 1–2 Jasmine Paolini (3).
- Note: Marta Kostyuk makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Marta Kostyuk | Jasmine Paolini | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 83% (6) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.6 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.1-8.7 | 12.8-11.9 |
| Aces | 3.8 | 0.9 |
| Double faults | 4.5 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 69.1% | 64.8% |
| Break % | 42.7% | 40.6% |
H2H · Marta Kostyuk 1 – 2 Jasmine Paolini (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marta Kostyuk 1–2 Jasmine Paolini
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/23 WTA Cincinnati | 0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 10/10/22 WTA Cluj-Napoca | 1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 13/08/22 WTA Cincinnati | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marta Kostyuk
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Ashlyn Krueger Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 04/07 | Emma Navarro Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 02/07 | Anna Blinkova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 30/06 | Nadia Podoroska Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/06 | Mirra Andreeva French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Elina Svitolina French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 31/05 | Iga Swiatek French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 29/05 | Viktorija Golubic French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 27/05 | Katie Volynets French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 24/05 | Oksana Selekhmeteva French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Jasmine Paolini
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Alexandra Eala Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 04/07 | Maria Sakkari Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/07 | Viktorija Golubic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 30/06 | Robin Montgomery Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 13-15 | W |
| 23/06 | Tatjana Maria WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Solana Sierra French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 25/05 | Dayana Yastremska French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 09/05 | Elise Mertens WTA Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 07/05 | Leolia Jeanjean WTA Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 25/04 | Hailey Baptiste WTA Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marta Kostyuk vs Jasmine Paolini?
Our model gives 62% to Marta Kostyuk, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.