Prediction: Naomi Osaka vs Karolina Muchova
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 53% to Naomi Osaka; the market gives 55% to Naomi Osaka (odds 1.73).
Recent form leaves Naomi Osaka with 9 wins and 1 losses over 10 games; Karolina Muchova has piled up 7-3 in the same span.
| Naomi Osaka | Karolina Muchova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 55% | 45% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Naomi Osaka dominates on serve: 6.5 aces and 54.4% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Naomi Osaka 3–2 Karolina Muchova (5).
Statistics
| Naomi Osaka | Karolina Muchova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 80% |
| Win % · Grass | 100% (8) | 89% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.3 | 1.6-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-7.4 | 11.9-8.5 |
| Aces | 6.5 | 5 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 79.3% | 75.6% |
| Break % | 54.4% | 58.1% |
H2H · Naomi Osaka 3 – 2 Karolina Muchova (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Naomi Osaka 3–2 Karolina Muchova
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/25 US Open Women | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 15/01/25 Australian Open Women | 2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 30/08/24 US Open Women | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 02/05/21 WTA Madrid | 1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 24/08/20 WTA New York | 2-1 | 18-13 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Naomi Osaka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Aryna Sabalenka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 03/07 | Daria Kasatkina Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/07 | Anastasia Gasanova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Elsa Jacquemot Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 26/06 | Xinyu Wang WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/06 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/06 | Elise Mertens WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/06 | Magdalena Frech WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/06 | Aryna Sabalenka French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 30/05 | Iva Jovic French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
Karolina Muchova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Barbora Krejcikova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 03/07 | Mananchaya Sawangkaew Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/07 | Shuai Zhang Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Anastasia Zakharova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/06 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 25/06 | Clara Tauson WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 24/06 | Irina-Camelia Begu WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 18/06 | Madison Keys WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Shuai Zhang WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/05 | Jil Teichmann French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Naomi Osaka vs Karolina Muchova?
Our model gives 54% to Naomi Osaka, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.