Tennis · Wimbledon Women · 08/07, 14:30
Prediction: Linda Noskova vs Elise Mertens
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 56% to Linda Noskova; the market gives 60% to Linda Noskova (odds 1.57).
Recent form leaves Linda Noskova with 8 wins and 2 losses over 10 games; Elise Mertens has piled up 5-5 in the same span.
58%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Linda Noskova 1615 · Elise Mertens 1574
| Linda Noskova | Elise Mertens | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 60% | 40% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Linda Noskova (rating 1615 vs 1574).
- Linda Noskova dominates on serve: 6.6 aces and 51.4% break avg.
- Note: Elise Mertens makes many double faults (5.3/match).
Statistics
| Linda Noskova | Elise Mertens | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 90% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.5 | 1.4-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.4-8.7 | 10.5-8.4 |
| Aces | 6.6 | 4.4 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 5.3 |
| 1st serve % | 76.3% | 72.3% |
| Break % | 51.4% | 52.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9 · Bet365 line 22.5 · -0.6
Over 22.5: 46% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 54% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Linda Noskova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Madison Keys Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/07 | Sorana Cirstea Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 02/07 | Maria Camila Osorio Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 30/06 | Ella Seidel Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/06 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 21/06 | Jessica Pegula WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 20/06 | Alexandra Eala WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/06 | Paula Badosa WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/06 | Diane Parry WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/06 | Renata Zarazua WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Elise Mertens
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Marie Bouzkova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 04/07 | Elena Rybakina Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 02/07 | Maria Timofeeva Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 14-9 | W |
| 30/06 | Laura Siegemund Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Naomi Osaka WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Alexandra Eala WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/06 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 11/06 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/06 | Bianca Andreescu WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Linda Noskova vs Elise Mertens?
Our model gives 58% to Linda Noskova, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.